January: Historically not a very good month

January historically is associated quite a few times with significant tops. Lets look at the images below.


1. January as Compared to the last trading day of December has given just 4 positive closes. Out of these only in 2001 and 2006, the closes have been substantially higher. In 2001, March was a month of heavy correction and in 2006, May was a month of total collapse in the markets.



2. In all the years, the low has always been below the close of December. So except the market to go down at least 1 pc below 6134.

3. The highs of Jan have always been higher than December close. This means expect the markets to cross at least 6200 once.

To sum up, a high higher than December closing, a low lower than December closing and a closing which has been higher than December closing only 4 out of 10 times.

On a daily basis, the Bollinger Bands have been expanding indicating a upward bias.

Also, have a look at the signifance of 5 day low ema. In a uptrend the market never goes below it. This comes to 6037 for now and could be a stop loss for longs.