January: What does history tell us about January

Taking into consideration how the market has fared in the last 12 January months, there are certain interesting observations one can come up with.

1. The market has fallen on 7 occasions and risen on 5 occasions.3 out of the 4 occasions were in 2000, 2001 and 2002. In recent years the markets have had a negative January.

2. The markets had given a double digit negative fall in 2008 (16.1%) and and 2011 (10.2%)

3. The rises have been fairly muted while the falls have been quite severe.The max rise has been 8.6% and the max fall has been 16.1%. The average fall has been 6.4 % and the average rise has been 4.64%

4. If we take December closing of 4624, the on closing basis we have a range of 4328 and 4827.

5. If we take the sequence, the market has always followed a Fibonacci sequence before reversing. 3 positive closes, 3 negatives closes, 2 positive closes, last 4 closes have been negative so to complete the Fibonacci sequence this Jan should also be negative.

6. If January closes again on a negative note, then February will be positive.Never have markets given more than 3 negative closes in a row.

Markets update:
The markets are stuck in a range. Short below 4585 and go long above 4732. Till then it is stuck in a range.
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