The markets digested 2 events of the Central Banks of the US and the RBI coming out with policy pronouncements. Let us see what they mean for the markets.1. The US Fed has started slow tapering of the bond purchases from January. The markets did ot show any major negative reactions because it was reduced only by 10 billion USD and the Fed softened the blow by saying that the low interest rates regime is here to stay.2. The tightening of the monetary policy means that the party for Gold is over unless there is some major event like a geopolitical...
Sunday, 22 December 2013
Saturday, 14 December 2013
Sell on News comes true
Posted on 23:21 by Unknown
There is an old adage in the markets, Buy on Rumours and Sell on News. The markets displayed this by hitting an immediate high on the news of BJP victory and then promptly retreating back to close the week 1.5 pc down. Let us see what can happen next?1. The FIIs have continued to buy every single trading day in December. The DIIs selling is lessening. As long as this FII buying continues, the markets will not tank.2. This week, all eyes will be on the Central Banks as we have the FOMC meeting and the RBI meeting. I expect some kind of Repo Rates...
Saturday, 7 December 2013
Election Results indicate a clear anti-Congress wave
Posted on 22:01 by Unknown
The ballots are counted and the victors have been declared. Who are the real winners and the losers? Are the election results a mirror to what is going to happen in the next 6 months, general elections? Let us try and explore. How will the markets react? Lot of questions to answer.1. First things first. Whatever be the minor change in positions after now, the message is clear, the voters want the Congress out. The party has been almost wiped out in Delhi, in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh they have won very few seats. If the BJP can secure almost...
Saturday, 30 November 2013
All Eyes on December 8th Results
Posted on 21:42 by Unknown
The markets rallied smartly by 3 pc during the expiry week to close just below the 6200 mark. The Elections are on in full swing with Rajasthan going to the polls now and Delhi on December 4th. The next immediate trigger for the market will the results on the 8th of December which is next Sunday.1. The heartening part of this rally is that even the mid caps have begun to rally. Voltas gaied something like 23 pc last week. All signs indicate Nov-Feb rally with a market top for the year being hit sometime around the Jan-Feb period.2. With the G-Sec...
Saturday, 23 November 2013
Lack of Triggers for the Market
Posted on 21:59 by Unknown
In the absence of any major decisive triggers for the markets, they continued to drift aimlessly losing another 1 pc for the week. Let us see if any triggers exist before the election results of the State Assemblies on the 8th of December.1. The Talking Heads on Television continued to play games with tapering stoppage or no. This is a good game for traders. Short term movements of 100-200 points on either side are the norm.2. FIIs have net bought 5600 crores for November so far and DIIs have sold 8200 crores. The markets have corrected by about...
Saturday, 16 November 2013
Correction Continues
Posted on 22:01 by Unknown
The market continued its correction, dipping further by 1.4 pc. Let us try and examine the pros and cons of the market movement.1. The markets are correcting gently, about 4 pc from the Diwali top. This could just be a bull market correction, looking at the slow nature of the fall.2. The FIIs have been net buyers for all the trading sessions in November 2013. Only, when they start unloading will the markets have a major fall.3. The major question is why are FIIs buying? It is not becuase of Narendra Modi but the continued avaailability of...
Saturday, 9 November 2013
Correction in a bull phase
Posted on 21:47 by Unknown
The markets dipped by around 2.8 pc for the week. The markets hit a new high for Diwali and since then have been correcting. Is it just a correction or is it something else?1. The thumb rule is that the markets tend to react from the previous top. 6350 has been a sort of double top. It is natural that the markets react from here and then come back and blast through.2. This has been an unusual correction, the large caps have corrected and the mid caps have rallied. This also means it should just be a correction before resuming the journey upwards.3....
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