The markets dipped by around 2.8 pc for the week. The markets hit a new high for Diwali and since then have been correcting. Is it just a correction or is it something else?
1. The thumb rule is that the markets tend to react from the previous top. 6350 has been a sort of double top. It is natural that the markets react from here and then come back and blast through.
2. This has been an unusual correction, the large caps have corrected and the mid caps have rallied. This also means it should just be a correction before resuming the journey upwards.
3. The last meaningful correction was around 441 points. So if we extrapolate then we can correct till 5902.
4. Coming to fundamentals, what has this rally been riding on? Many talking heads claim it on the Narendra Modi effect. It is too early to talk about that. Elections are ot due till May 2014. A good 8 months away and anything could happen.
5. The markets have been rallying on easy money from abroad. The putting off of tapering, has resulted in flows of 3 billion dollars in October and November also about 1500 crores till date.
6. If tapering happens then the flows will stop and the markets will correct.
7. November to February is a period when the markets traditionally rally and hit a top in Feb-March. Let us see how this seasonality plays out this time.
8. The next major data point would be the State election results in December though that is not a relaible barometer for the National elections.
9. The G-Sec yields have almost touched 9 pc. Those ivesting for the long term can park their money here as a hedge when stocks correct to put the money back. The short term party is over though for Gilt funds. Oly those prepared to hang on for 2-3 years should invest.
10. This is a good time to clean up one's portfolio. If junk stocks rise, sell them without thinking twice. Ultimately only quality value stocks matter.
1. The thumb rule is that the markets tend to react from the previous top. 6350 has been a sort of double top. It is natural that the markets react from here and then come back and blast through.
2. This has been an unusual correction, the large caps have corrected and the mid caps have rallied. This also means it should just be a correction before resuming the journey upwards.
3. The last meaningful correction was around 441 points. So if we extrapolate then we can correct till 5902.
4. Coming to fundamentals, what has this rally been riding on? Many talking heads claim it on the Narendra Modi effect. It is too early to talk about that. Elections are ot due till May 2014. A good 8 months away and anything could happen.
5. The markets have been rallying on easy money from abroad. The putting off of tapering, has resulted in flows of 3 billion dollars in October and November also about 1500 crores till date.
6. If tapering happens then the flows will stop and the markets will correct.
7. November to February is a period when the markets traditionally rally and hit a top in Feb-March. Let us see how this seasonality plays out this time.
8. The next major data point would be the State election results in December though that is not a relaible barometer for the National elections.
9. The G-Sec yields have almost touched 9 pc. Those ivesting for the long term can park their money here as a hedge when stocks correct to put the money back. The short term party is over though for Gilt funds. Oly those prepared to hang on for 2-3 years should invest.
10. This is a good time to clean up one's portfolio. If junk stocks rise, sell them without thinking twice. Ultimately only quality value stocks matter.
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