In the absence of any major decisive triggers for the markets, they continued to drift aimlessly losing another 1 pc for the week. Let us see if any triggers exist before the election results of the State Assemblies on the 8th of December.
1. The Talking Heads on Television continued to play games with tapering stoppage or no. This is a good game for traders. Short term movements of 100-200 points on either side are the norm.
2. FIIs have net bought 5600 crores for November so far and DIIs have sold 8200 crores. The markets have corrected by about 4.8 pc so far.
3. All eyes for any major swing will be on the 4 major State election results. As I see it, these results will have no major impact on the General Elections and are likely to favor the BJP in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chatisgarh. Delhi should head for a hung assembly. The markets may take it as a thumbs up for the BJP and rise if the results favor the BJP. Worst case would be an equal split between the Congress and the BJP.
4. Technically speaking the markets have reached the 5 week low ema at 5996 and some bounce can emanate from these levels. If no bounce then the markets can touch lower levels, correcting the rise from 5701 to 6342. Levels in this case would be 5946, 5870 and 5829.Any fall below 5829 will be a harbinger of larger falls to come.
5. The area around 5850-5900 has a confluence of supports. They rage from the 200 DMA to the equality of last fall, to 38.2 pc retracement level of entire rally from 5118.
6. Pharma and IT stocks have led this rally and there would be no harm in booking profits in these sectors and taking the money home. Finally only the profits booked is the real profit. Rest all is illusory.
7. The bond yields are hardening at around 9 pc. At these levels, for a 2 year investment G-Sec funds are still a good buy.
Now, is the time to lie low and do detailed study to invest in quality stocks when the time is right.
1. The Talking Heads on Television continued to play games with tapering stoppage or no. This is a good game for traders. Short term movements of 100-200 points on either side are the norm.
2. FIIs have net bought 5600 crores for November so far and DIIs have sold 8200 crores. The markets have corrected by about 4.8 pc so far.
3. All eyes for any major swing will be on the 4 major State election results. As I see it, these results will have no major impact on the General Elections and are likely to favor the BJP in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chatisgarh. Delhi should head for a hung assembly. The markets may take it as a thumbs up for the BJP and rise if the results favor the BJP. Worst case would be an equal split between the Congress and the BJP.
4. Technically speaking the markets have reached the 5 week low ema at 5996 and some bounce can emanate from these levels. If no bounce then the markets can touch lower levels, correcting the rise from 5701 to 6342. Levels in this case would be 5946, 5870 and 5829.Any fall below 5829 will be a harbinger of larger falls to come.
5. The area around 5850-5900 has a confluence of supports. They rage from the 200 DMA to the equality of last fall, to 38.2 pc retracement level of entire rally from 5118.
6. Pharma and IT stocks have led this rally and there would be no harm in booking profits in these sectors and taking the money home. Finally only the profits booked is the real profit. Rest all is illusory.
7. The bond yields are hardening at around 9 pc. At these levels, for a 2 year investment G-Sec funds are still a good buy.
Now, is the time to lie low and do detailed study to invest in quality stocks when the time is right.
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