The market is slowly drifting down. Last week, it ended the week with a drop of another 0.3 pc. The market may be at around 5900 levels but the many of the stocks are at 5500 levels. Let us try and explore what can make the markets go up.
1. One may argue that the markets have made a long-term top. What goes against this argument is there is o euphoria in the markets. Long term tops are usually characterized by news anchors beig excited on television and sharp falls in the markets.
2. This is the last real budget the government presents before the general elections. The elections are due in April 2014, the Government needs lots of cash. This can oly be got by a buoyant stock market. FIIs flows reduce the current account deficit and also offloading PSU stakes in Offers for Sales.
3. I expect a lot of market friendly measures to be introduced into the budget.
4. The fuel hike implies that the Government is serious about pruning subsidies. I have also oticed many times, just as the Givernment hikes fuel prices, crude oil makes a top. If crude prices come down from here, this will be a further relief for the Government.
5. The results are out of the way and the next major trigger is the Union budget. The markets will be rage bound till the budget and a decisive direction will be got only after the budget.
6. The budget coincides with the expiry of the Nifty. This makes for interesting times. My analysis suggests that the expiry should be around 6000 or higher.
Long Term wealth is created only by Investing. I see a good entry point at the current levels in the next 2 weeks. For those, interested, Lakshmi and myself are re-opening the subscription only till budget day. For details, please refer here.
1. One may argue that the markets have made a long-term top. What goes against this argument is there is o euphoria in the markets. Long term tops are usually characterized by news anchors beig excited on television and sharp falls in the markets.
2. This is the last real budget the government presents before the general elections. The elections are due in April 2014, the Government needs lots of cash. This can oly be got by a buoyant stock market. FIIs flows reduce the current account deficit and also offloading PSU stakes in Offers for Sales.
3. I expect a lot of market friendly measures to be introduced into the budget.
4. The fuel hike implies that the Government is serious about pruning subsidies. I have also oticed many times, just as the Givernment hikes fuel prices, crude oil makes a top. If crude prices come down from here, this will be a further relief for the Government.
5. The results are out of the way and the next major trigger is the Union budget. The markets will be rage bound till the budget and a decisive direction will be got only after the budget.
6. The budget coincides with the expiry of the Nifty. This makes for interesting times. My analysis suggests that the expiry should be around 6000 or higher.
Long Term wealth is created only by Investing. I see a good entry point at the current levels in the next 2 weeks. For those, interested, Lakshmi and myself are re-opening the subscription only till budget day. For details, please refer here.
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