January: What does history tell us about January

Taking into consideration how the market has fared in the last 12 January months, there are certain interesting observations one can come up with.1. The market has fallen on 7 occasions and risen on 5 occasions.3 out of the 4 occasions were in 2000, 2001 and 2002. In recent years the markets have had a negative January.2. The markets had given a double digit negative fall in 2008 (16.1%) and and 2011 (10.2%)3. The rises have been fairly muted while...

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Holiday Season Kicks in

The markets recovered from the early week blues to settle about 1.3 pc up and close the week with mild gains. The coming week is the expiry week and there are several reasons why the markets will close up for this week too.1. It is the time for the year end bonuses and NAV reporting hence I do not expect any weakness i the markets. US and European markets are closed on Monday, thus giving a field day to the operators to take the markets up a bit....

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Markets Ahead

The Rate Hikes took a pause and the markets tanked in the last 2 hours to close the week -4.4 pc. Lets take a look at what lies ahead for the Indian markets.1. The RBI as expected took a pause. There were wide spread rumors of a CRR cut. There is no basis for a CRR cut and these were just rumors spread by vested interests to take the markets down. The Gilt funds have a given an absolute return of about 4 pc in 1 month and this is an early indication...

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Action Packed Week Ahead

The Next week brings in a lot of news on the domestic front. This could be the last week of real big moves before everyone gets into the holiday mood. Lets try and take a look at the action ahead.1. Next week, we have the monthly IIP numbers, monthly inflation figures and to end the week we have the RBI policy. If we have poor IIP numbers and tame inflation figures, the RBI may pause and even in fact cut the CRR or SLR rate. Expect markets to rally if any cuts happen.2. The European summit has come. The outcome is not as great was expected and...

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What does December hold for us?

The markets returned their best weekly showing in 2.5 years to close at 5050, a net gain of about 7.2 pc. Are we out of the woods?Let us try and explore.1. This stunning rally has been on the back of Domestic liquidity. DIIs have bought about 700 crores worth of shares whereas FIIs have sold to the tune of 110 crores. FIIs have sold for about 3 days of the 6 day rally.2. The Nifty has outperformed the broader market. The Nifty has gone about 7.2...

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