Cardinal Climax

Have a look at this interesting read.

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/234091-hewitt-heiserman/61457-rare-cardinal-climax-planetary-alignment-this-summer-puts-stocks-at-risk-says-veteran-sky-watcher

Archie Crawford is one of the best financial astrologers living

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Bharti Airtel

I had written a guest post for Subhankar's blog. Here is the link for those interested in knowing about Bharti and the Telecom space.

http://investmentsfordummieslikeme.blogspot.com/2010/07/bullish-case-for-bharti-airtel-guest.html

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World Economies: Where do they stand

There are 2 very important indicators which I like to track to see where the World Economies are moving. Stock Markets are just an Indicator of the Real Economic Activities. They may or may not reflect the actual underlying strength or weakness of the economy. They may run up ahead of the fundamentals based on hope. A hope of a better future.
Job Growth and the Housing Market are key barometers of how well a country is doing. why jobs? Jobs offer employment to people giving them money to spend.Most of the World economies are driven by consumer spending. If the consumer has no money to splurge who will buy luxury items? Housing markets indicate how well the real economy is doing in terms of construction activity, steel consumptions, again jobs for people, the spending power of the people.
Lets take a look at America. The Case-Shiller Index is a benchmark Index for housing. The 20 city index is about 30 pc down from its peak and is at 2003 levels. As per them, home prices do not show any sustained recovery. If Housing has not recovered in spite of the stimulus and waivers given by Obama, US still remains in a hole.




More Details can be got at:
Case-Shiller Index

Lets look at the jobs data.
The unemployment rages between 9-10 pc officially.Now this data is on lower end of the estimates. Why? It does not include people who have stopped looking for jobs or had to take up part time employment since they cannot find full time jobs. Real unemployed may well be twice of the estimates about 20 pc.




Now, the Dow is 10200 levels. Where was it in late 2003? The Dow was at 9300 with an unemployment rate of 6.3 %. The economy had just bottomed out and was beginning the boom years.
Unless Housing improves and the market improves, the Dow is overpriced right now. A good correction of 2000 points should be on the cards.


As for our markets, the dollar index weakened to 83 odd levels. It should run into support areas at 82-83 which would be a reversal point.Also, FIIs were dormant during the week, except a huge purchase on Friday of 1100 crores.

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Counter point to Paul Krugman

We read what Paul Krugman said on Third Depression.Bill Bonner tears away Krugman to pieces.

Enjoy Reading:

http://www.equitymaster.com/DailyReckoning/detail.asp?date=7/9/2010&story=3

Bottomline: We are still where we were earlier. Nobody suggests how to get out of the hole.

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Taran Marwah Posts

I have been tracking Taran Marwah for the past couple of years and he proved right more often than not. I am listing his website below, so those interested can have a glance at it.

http://www.afund.com/afundindia.html?

Enjoy Reading!!!

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World Markets Down: Why are we holding up?

It was a tumultuous week for the World Markets. Europe, Shanghai and the US markets tanked. Indian Markets have fallen barely 3 pc from the peak. Why this divergence. In the first part, lets look at the charts.

1. Check the Dollar Index, it topped out on June 7th and a corrective down-move began. This led to a sharp up-move in the Indian Markets. The reason is clear FIIs have been buying no-stop since that day. This is the hot money which chases fast moves. For our markets to tank the Dollar Index will need to reverse.




2. In Oct 2007, The Shanghai Index topped out first. It led the fall and the rest of the world followed 3 months later. In terms of percentage of falls, Indian markets fell later but caught up with the Shanghai in terms of percentage fall.



3. In this year 2010, Shanghai as fallen about 30 pc from its peak. The Indian Market will follow suit and roughly that should amount to a cut up till 12600 in Sensex and 3750 Nifty at the bare minimum.



4. The World markets are all coupled together. The Divergence happens only in the time frame as in they need not tank at exactly at the same time. If the World markets fall, then we will not continue rallying. This is because the FIIs will book profits in India and deploy them elsewhere. Till the time, the Indian retail and Domestic Funds become stronger this will continue.

5. In the next part, lets try and explore the fundamental reasons why we are holding up yet.

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Volumes

This week we started at 5269 and after 4 days we are nowhere as yet. On Up days the Volumes are more than down days in the past 4 days.

That means short term markets have more likelihood of rallying than breaking down.

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