The markets lost 1.5 pc this week to close at 5209. In the last 2 weeks, the markets have gained a net of 2 points. Its a listless and range bound trading. The optimist may say that the markets are not going lower. The pessimist may say neither is it going higher. Either ways the markets need a strong trigger. Let us try and explore the positive and negative triggers.Positives: 1. The Parliament will be back in session in a few days time. If the provisions of GAAR are softened, the FII flows will return.2. The early forecasts about monsoon are...
Saturday, 28 April 2012
Thursday, 26 April 2012
Just a quick update looking at the charts. Markets are likely to go a bit lower. The Corrective B correcting the up move from 4531 to 5629 is not yet over. Only legs A and B are over. 1 more down leg starting from 5378 is ongoing.The target for this could be 5074 which coincidentally is close to 50% retracement of the up move. Be prepared to nibble at lower leve...
Saturday, 21 April 2012
The markets rallied by about 1.6 pc after the RBI surprised by cutting rates by 50 basis points instead of the widely expected 25 basis points.1. The corporate results are beginning to pour in. The results of HCL Tech and HDFC Bank are good. Reliance had a poor quarter and about 42 pc of its profits came from investments. It means that Reliance has a lot of cash on its books and doesn't know where to deploy it. Reliance is a stock which I would stay away from at the current moment and look at only about 10-15 % lower.2. HCL Tech results again underlined...
Saturday, 14 April 2012
The markets lost 2.2 % to close the week at 5207. The European cues and Infy results dragged the markets down.1.Infosys results cannot be taken as the benchmark for IT as a whole.Its best to wait and watch the results of TCS and Cognizant. Infy is set to move to third spot with Cognizant taking over. No pay hikes this time at Infy may lead to increase in attrition. The best days of Infosys may be behind it.2. The RBI credit policy on Tues has a Repo cut of 25 basis points factored in. With inflation still pretty high, its difficult for anything...
Wednesday, 11 April 2012
The markets seems to be bottoming out. Above 5341, the markets will have ended the down move.Trend line study shows a higher close tomorrow will end immediate down trend and above 5326, the intermediate down trend will be over.The only negative factor has the been the FII sell figures this week.The positive factor is that the indices have tanked but the stocks have ot fallen by mu...
Sunday, 8 April 2012
It was a three day trading week and the markets went up by 0.5 %. The Results season is almost upon us. Infosys comes out with results on Friday.1. The 2 key events which could drive the markets in April are the earnings and the RBI policy on the 17th of April. I do expect a CRR cut in this policy as well. Inflation has started heading up again and unless we have good monsoons, it is unlikely that the inflation will come down fast.2. The Results are usually factored in by the markets and unless we have very good or very bad results, there should...
Sunday, 1 April 2012
The markets finally rebounded on Friday.It closed the week with a gain of 0.3 %. The more heartening fact was the support it got in the 5150-5200 region.1. The Current up move which started in Dec'11 can be treated as a corrective up move to whole down move from 6339 to 4532. I believe post this up move which can end any time between May and June we will see a final fall which will have a final bottom any where from 3400-4200.2. The current up move had a leg A from 4532 to 5630. Leg B from 5630 to 5136. Leg A was 1098 which was corrective about...
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