Technicals for the Week

Markets seem to have made a short term bottom at 5329.Lets look at what could be key levels in the coming weeks.1. The Fall if completed from 5944 to 5329 would be one leg of a fresh unfolding down move. Retracement levels are placed at 5564, 5637 and 5709.2. The 20 ema is at 5502 and 20 MA at 5490. Close above these levels key to close all shorts.3. The 200 EMA at 5600 levels is first key target.4. The Fall terminated before touching the lower Bollinger...

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200 Day Moving Average and 200 EMA: Market Behaviour

The 200 DMA is supposed to the dividing line between a Bear and a Bull Market. Let us take a look at how the markets have behaved ever since the Bull Run started in March 2009.The Markets have traded below the 200 DMA 3 times in May 2010, Feb 2011 and now in May 2011. Prior to this, the markets bounced off the 200 DMA in Feb 2010.1. Each time, the market goes below 200 DMA it seems to spend more time below it. First time in May 2010, it spent 6 days...

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Outlook for Indian Equities - A letter to Taran Marwah

Dear Mr Taran Marwah,Good Evening.I am an avid follower of the capital markets and keep myself abreast of all current developments either through the print media or the electronic media (primarily through NDTV PROFIT & CNBC-TV18). I am alsointerested in reading articles on personal finance and investments in varied asset classes.I have often read your e-mails with great interest whenever you post them online and have found them to be quite relevant and meaningful.Coming back to equities, I have recently stumbled upon reviews by eminent analysts...

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Crude Oil Presentation

Taran and I had done a study on the historical movement of crude oil prices and the path they are expected to take.Please refer the path below to access the presentation.https://groups.google.com/group/nav-files/browse_thread/thread/ddb3a7230421772e?hl=en...

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Options for Hedging

Options are much misunderstood and much maligned. They are best used for hedging, and not as a gambling mechanism.I have written a guest post on the same for Subhankar.Continue Reading at:http://investmentsfordummieslikeme.blogspot.com/2011/05/how-to-use-options-as-hedge-guest-post.h...

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Technicals for the Next Week

It was a sideways kind of week with the Nifty registering a fall of 0.1 pc. The kind of movement suggests that it is a pause before the continuation of the fall. Let us look at a few technical parameters.1. 5476 is a key support level for this month. The Markets hit 5472 and then bounced back. Keep a close on 5472. If it sustains below this level, one ca go short.2. 5624 is the 200 EMA and 5754 is the 200 DMA. Longs only above 5624.3. The biggest...

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Important cues post monetary policy & assembly election results - Detailed analysis Guest Post Sanil Sonalkar

A Guest post from Sanil SonalkarThe RBI's monetary policy announcement on 3rd May, 2011 seems to have thrown a spanner in the works and upset the calculations of most analysts who had reasons to believe that the Sensex had a smart chance of crossing the 20,000 barrier. We are now trading at considerably lower levels & some blue-chip counters are dangerously close to their 52-week lows. Yesterday's relief rally can be partially attributed to the positive election results and partially to short-covering in many of the counters. In the aftermath...

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Important Week Coming up

It was a big week gone by. The RBI hiked rates by 50 basis points and the markets tanked by 3.4 pc. Gold and Silver along with other commodities fell. The next week is of even more significance. The Election Results will be out next Friday. That would determine the path Markets take.1. The RBI hiked rates by 50 basis points. This was more than expected and the markets tanked.Expect Banks and Autos to be under strain. The Auto sales dipped for April...

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Chart for the Day:Sigificance of 200 DMA and 200 EMA

Have a look at the charts. A re-test should be on the cards. 5632 and then quite possibly 5750. We wait and we wat...

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May is key Month for the Markets

May has historically seen wild swings in the year when there have been key Election Results. Lets have a look at the data for the past 10 years. Also, we have the RBI policy to contend with on Tuesday.1. There have been Lok Sabha Elections in 2004 and 2009. Assembly elections in 2006. The results have been declared in May and there have been wild swings. Dips of 28 pc in 2004 and 18 pc in 2006 ad 30 pc rise in May 2009.2. We have the election results...

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