1. This is the for the past 8 weeks. A break of this take us to 5225, the previous low.2. Monthly pivot at 5357 and weekly support at 5357 are key levels.3. Next support at around 5300.4. 50 ema at 5387, we can have a bounce uptil this point.Strategy: Book part shorts and watch a clean break of 5349. resistances at 5387, 5451. Go long only above 5400 if you are aggressi...
Tuesday, 31 August 2010
Saturday, 28 August 2010
Lets see the last few times when the nifty hit major tops and its behavior after that. Thanks to Natasha for suggesting this line of analysis.1. Lets take the 20, 50, 100 and 200 MA and the distances by which they were above the Nifty in percentage terms when the markets hit the Tops. As each next top is hit, the out performance is steadily coming down. This implies that the rises are getting slower.2. Next I took the falls after each rise. They...
Saturday, 21 August 2010
I did a study yesterday on the 4 market rallies since July'09. I came to some startling conclusions. They do not paint a very happy picture. Our markets are getting shallower even if all the drumbeats say new all time highs.Have a look at the images.1. The rallies are getting slower. The first 3 rallies had about 18 points per day gain on an average. Last rally has barely sputtered to 11 points a day.The rise has been very slow in the last rally....
Tuesday, 17 August 2010
I had written a guest post for Subhankar's blog today.Oil is also known as Black Gold. The lust for oil has led to many wars. Empires have been built on oil and lost due to oil. Oil prices in the next decade may very easily rule above 100 dollars a barrel. Do not believe it?Continue Reading at:http://investmentsfordummieslikeme.blogspot.com/2010/08/cairn-india-oil-story-worth-betting-on.h...
Sunday, 15 August 2010
Last Diwali, Lakshmi and I had prepared a Diwali Picks presentation. The below chart gives the performance.http://money-manthan.blogspot.com/2009/10/diwali-picks.htmlThe peak performance was 26 pc and average was 20 pc as compared to 6 and 6.8 pc of the Nifty.I would recommend booking 50% of the portfolio and remaining in cash. Some of the things we noticed:1. Maruti Sales have recorded all time highs since Diwali, but share prices have gone no where.2....
Saturday, 14 August 2010
The Market continues to test everyone's patience. The Dow was down almost 3.5 % during the week. Our markets gained only 0.2 pc or 13 points on the Nifty. The Sensex rose by 24 points but 84 points were contributed by SBI.1. FIIs have pumped in over 4000 crores in August and 16000 crores this year.The nifty has rallied only 2 pc in spite of almost a billion dollars being pumped.2. The Gann fans show that the critical resistances around 5500 have...
Wednesday, 11 August 2010
Saturday, 7 August 2010
The past few weeks has seen a range-bound action. The Market has been unable to break out or break down. Such Ranged moves occur typically before a huge breakout or a breakdown. Lets look at a few technical and fundamental factors.1. The Bollinger Bands have contracted and the range is 5360-5478. Breach of either these 2 levels will lead to a big move either ways.2. There is huge Open Interest at Puts of Strike prices 5400 and below. In the past...
I was reading the The Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand and came across this piece on Gold which was written by her in 1957."Whenever destroyers appear among men, they start by destroying money, for money is man's protection and the base of a moral existence. Destroyers seize gold and leave to its owners a counterfeit pile of paper. This kills all objective standards and delivers men into the arbitrary power of a arbitrary settler of values. Gold was an objective value, an equivalent of wealth produced. Paper is a mortgage on wealth that does not exists,...
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