The Liquidity Flow Decides the Short Term Direction

The Markets just collapsed on the first 2 days of trading and then smartly rebounded. The Markets are a play on the Dollar Index and the liquidity oozing in or out.Lets look at the fundamentals:1. Fundamentals do not change overnight. They are a series of factors which takes weeks, months and years to play out. On the Indian markets nothing has changed much. The Monsoons are the next trigger. A good monsoon is somewhat factored in, but a delay would...

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Long Term Gann Supports at 4750

Maybe a small bounce from 4750- 4770 leve...

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Markets Next Week: FIIs press the Sell button

It was another week of losses for the Indian Stocks with the Nifty losing -3.2% for the Week. It was a Week characterized with Heavy FII withdrawals.1.The FII withdrew about 5245 crores for the week and also were Sellers for the Entire Week. The DIIs bought about 2302 crores. For the year, the FII tally is now in the negative with a net sell figure of about 1600 crores. On Dec 31st 2009, the Market was at 5200 and today at 4931, a loss of 270 points.2.There...

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Cover Most of your shorts today

In almost a week, the market has fallen 300 points and more to fall today. A technical bounce is due.Please cover most of your shorts tod...

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Markets Next Week : Watch the Dollar Index

This week, Monday we had big up day and rest of the week, it was just sideways movement followed by a breakdown on Friday. We are heavily dependent on FII flows and I did a study for the Month of May on the Dollar Index and FII funds flow pullout.1. The Results season is out of the way and no major surprises. Honestly, I feel the Results usually get factored in much earlier. The next triggers could be the onset of Monsoon setting in. This not too...

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How the European Woes Affect All of Us

Over the last few weeks, Greece and the so - called PIIGs countries of Europe have been under the spotlight. Let us examine what is the European Union, why the debts of certain member countries are a threat to all and the way going forward.The roots of the European Union can be traced to the period after the Second World War and the rebuilding of Europe. For those who are interested in reading further, wiki has interesting nuggets:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_UnionThe...

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Markets Next Week

As suggested in the last week's post, the Greek Tragedy did pose a shadow over the world. The Dow did a mid-week drama intra-day dropping 1000 points, the Ambanis had their day out in the court. It was an Action packed hot summer week. There are a few very significant cues happening which one should take note of.1. The FIIs sold and sold huge. 4252 crores sold in May itself and last 3 days around 3600 crores. The rupee tanked from 44.20 odd levels...

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RIL-RNRL Judgement

Tomorrow is judgment day at 10:30 am. SO which way will it swing?1.RIL winsWhy? Look at price movement in past 2-3 days. RNRL tanking and RIL steady and marginally positive2. RNRL winsWhy? They won in High Court and SC might go with the arguments which swayed HC. Its always difficult to overturn a verdict.3. LimboNo clear judgment. This appears remote but we never know.So technical say RIL wins and fundamentals say RNRL. Wonder which one wi...

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Three Downward Triggers to Watch For

As expected, the expiry happened around 5250. There are 3 major triggers to be watched over for the month of May. The old adage goes "Sell in May" and go for a vacation. We did not have the customary Jan-March correction so we are due for one in May.The 3 triggers are:1. European Sovereign Debt problems2. 2G Auction scandal.3. US Goldman issues.Lets take them 1 at a time.1. European Sovereign Debt issues.It started with Greece and is spreading to...

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