The first 3 days of trading have shown a net gain of about 30 points. Interestingly, I find my mid caps picks also moving up. 4922 remains a key support and I find it being tested. Technically, if the down move is still on, then we are Y -B corrective up move which should target 5050-5100. Post this, I see another re-test of 4800-4900 before the move up to 5650-5900.4750 and 5100 remain the boundary areas beyond which further falls or rises can be speculated upon. June 17th when Greece votes we will see decisive moves. My sense is Greece will stay...
Wednesday, 30 May 2012
Saturday, 26 May 2012
The Government bit the bullet and raised the Petrol prices by Rs 7.5 raising expectations that further reforms will take place in this small window of opportunity. The markets responded by closing 0.6 pc higher after several weeks of losses.1. The Government raised Petrol prices but the real losses come from the sale of Diesel where there is under recovery of almost Rs 14. Only when these prices are raised or taxes increased on Diesel vehicles and extra tax amount paid to OMCs (Oil Marketing Companies) will the real losses be stemmed.2. The Facebook...
Wednesday, 23 May 2012
The Government has just hiked Petrol prices by Rs 7.5. The markets should take this as a sign of Government keen on reforms.The key question of price hike of LPG and Diesel remain unanswered.Technically, the market is at support levels and if it holds 4800 then we should bounce from here. The difference from the lows of last week is that several stocks are holding up and not falling down along with the Nifty which could be an indication of base formation for the moment.4750 remains the key level. Any move below it would indicate retreat back into...
Saturday, 19 May 2012
The markets closed 0.8 pc down to maintain the down trend from 5630.We are at a critical juncture right now and there are broadly 3 possibilities which can occur now. Let us try and examine them and see how we can leverage these for our benefit.1. The markets bounce from here or around 4750. We then continue the 3rd and final leg of the up move from 4532. The reason 4750 is critical is that it is the 80 pc retracement of the up move from 4532 to 5629. We may go back and from a double top around 5629 or continue upwards at 5750-5800 region.2. Second...
Thursday, 17 May 2012
Saturday, 12 May 2012
The market have lost another 3.1 pc to end the week at 4928. The markets are at critical levels. So, what do investors do at such junctures?1. The markets continued their downward movement on a variety of factors including Euro problems, policy paralysis by the government. The Government again postponed the FDI in insurance.2. The Corporate Results continued to be a mix bag. One should focus on stocks which have low debt, are in sectors in which there is no Government policy confusion and give a steady dividend yield.3. The markets broke through...
Wednesday, 9 May 2012
The markets have lost about 2.2 pc in 3 days and are at a critical level. 4950 is the 61.8 pc retracement level of the entire rise ad the markets should take support here.After 4950, the next support comes at 4880. The entire up move will be invalidated below 4751. Strategy could be picking up good dividend yield stocks. Many PSU banks have tax free dividend yield of about 5 % which is equivalent to more than 7 pc pre-tax. Such banks are a safe bet at current leve...
Saturday, 5 May 2012
The markets ended 2.3 pc down to close at 5089. This is its lowest close since early Jan 2012. Is it all over for the equity story or is it a buying chance? Let us have a look.Fundamentals:1. The budget session opens on Monday. The government is expected to clarify on the GAAR issue and the Mauritius issue. Expect the government to blink. A deferment to 2013 with the DTC of GAAR and the markets will cross 5300 easily.2. The French elections will...
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