The rally continues. Resistances have come and gone and the market is at the doors of the 200 SMA. Is a new bull market born? What does one do in the current scenario?1. The relentless march has been on the back of FII flows. Dollar is back to 49.50 from 54. In a month's time have the fundamentals changed so much? It is the FII money which is pumping the markets up on steroids.2. This also means that either the fall from Nov 2010 is over or it can be broken into A - B- C legs. A was 1807 points. B leg can have targets of 5432 and 5648 followed...
Friday, 27 January 2012
Wednesday, 25 January 2012
Saturday, 21 January 2012
The markets have run up and we has the best January in many years to log in a monthly gain of 9.2%. Does this mean the entire bear market is over or where do we stand? Lets try and explore.1. We had assumed the current up move was counter to the fall from 5400 to 4532. The Fibo retracements came to 4863, 4966 and 5068. We can say this is a fresh up move only above 5226 which is also 200 DMA.2.The falling trend line from 6339 joining all the tops...
Monday, 16 January 2012
I took a look at the last few rallies and for the number of sessions they ralied along with the magnitude over the last year.1. 4639 - 5099 = 460 points and 8 sessions2. 4732 - 5400 = 668 points and 16 sessions3. 5178 - 5944 = 766 points and 38 sessions4. 5196 - 5744 = 548 points and 14 sessionsCurrent rally is 4532 - 4935 = 403 points and 21 sessions, the slowest so far.Conclusion: This is retreacemnt pull back rally. Beyond 4992, it would mean this is a larger rally, till then it remains just a normal pullback ral...
Saturday, 14 January 2012
The markets had another positive week gaining another 2.5 % to end at 4866. Let us try and see the factors which would drive the markets in the week ahead. There is a slew of corporate earnings ahead.1. The early results have been lackluster. Infosys disappointed with its guidance and HDFC results also were nothing to write home about. The early results usually set the tone for the results ahead. If good results do not come in this week, then expect...
Saturday, 7 January 2012
The market closed up about 2.7 pc for the week. The Interesting part was the number of times it was resisted at 4780-4800 in this week. The coming week will be decisive for the markets.1. The markets got resisted at the 4780 mark for about 3-4 times this week. This is a worrisome sign for the bulls. If it does not break through in the first 2-3 sessions of the week, expect a sound crack in the markets.2. The trend line from the move down from 5400...
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