It was a news filled truncated Diwali week. Diwali is over and now is the time to look ahead. Lets try and see what possible road the market takes ahead.1. The RBI policy as expected hiked rates by 25 basis points. The fine print was that Savings Bank Interest Rates have been de-regulated. This has potential to erode the profit margins especially of large private banks. Yes Bank immediately offered 6 pc Interest rates on Savings Account. This is a drag on the private sector banks.2. Europe crisis has been averted by the Private Banks taking a 50...
Sunday, 30 October 2011
Wednesday, 26 October 2011
Today on the day of a new Mahurat it is time to take stock. In the last 1 year, the markets have gone down about 16 pc. What does the road ahead hold for us?1. Now is the time to start building your portfolio gradually. Think with a horizon of 5-10 years and look for companies which will power the new economy, the new world order.2. Once identified, start adding in installments. Every 200 points lower on Nifty say add 10 pc.3. Look at locking in NCDs and fixed income instruments at the current high rates of interest.4. Buy Gold strictly in dips...
Sunday, 23 October 2011
It is a crucial week for the markets with the expiry on Tuesday and a curtailed trading week. TO complicate matters we have the RBI policy to boot on Tuesday. Let us see what the markets have to offer.1. Expiry on Tuesday and RBI Credit policy on same day is potentially explosive cocktail. RBI should hike rates by 25 basis points. Anything less or more could trigger about 100 point moves on the Nifty.2. The resistance of 5170 has held for 3 attempts now. Either we break it in the move or we tank to to test 4720. Above 5230, we can re-test the...
Wednesday, 19 October 2011
Sunday, 16 October 2011
It was a rally on D-Street and the Nifty rallied about 5 pc to close the week at 5132. What will the coming week bring ahead. Will the rally continue or will it sputter. Let us try and find out.1. The October Settlement is a truncated one. The expiry is happening on Tuesday, Oct 25th thanks to Diwali. This gives us about 7 sessions to expiry.2. The RBI credit policy falls on Oct 25th. So, we will have action packed expiry this time. It will be like a lottery as a 100 point swings can happen.3. The inflation is still not under control. I expect...
Thursday, 6 October 2011
We hit the tops at 6357 in January 2008 and 6339 in November 2010. The support levels cam at around 5100 which have decisively broken giving a target of 3700 to 3900 range.Time elapsed between 2 peaks is 32 months, so it may be another 32 months from November 2010, which comes to June 2013 that we cross 6350 again. It could also mean the Bear Market could last 32 months out of which 11 months have elapsed. This is same scenario as 1992-2000 where...
Sunday, 2 October 2011
The last quarter has been bad for the equity markets. The Government borrowing is going through the roof and Gold prices are declining. What does an Investor do next? Lets try and work out the best investment avenues.1. The Goverment has ended borrowing about 66 pc of their full year target in the first 6 months. This means in H2, they will borrow more. This means Rates will go up and Bonds yields have risen. Gilt funds will still have to wait for sometime or one can do a SIP in Gilt funds. Interest Rates are yet to peak out.2. The US Dollar is...
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