Deviations from the Moving Averages

Markets tend to go through phases when they keep on going higher at a sustained rate or lower at a steady phase. They tend to deviate from their average prices of various periods like 20, 50, 100 and 200. Eventually they always come back to the average prices.The genesis of this study came from SS who writes a very informative blog at http://timamo.blogspot.com/ which I love for its out of the box thinking. I have taken his study of 50 periods further...

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Put Call Ratio and the Nifty

The definition of Put-Call Ratio (PCR) is as follows:The ratio of the volume of put options traded to the volume of call options traded, which is used as an indicator of investor sentiment (bullish or bearish).1 school of thought says that a high PCR means more number of Puts have been written and markets should go ahead. Another school of thought says the converse.Lets go by the data in hand for past 1 year.The market has bottomed when PCR was around...

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Hotel Leela

I had written a write-up on Hotel Leela for Subhankar's blog.In this month’s guest post, Nishit speculates that following the stake purchase in East India Hotels by Reliance, a possible consolidation in the hotels sector may follow with Hotel Leela as the likely target. Leave a comment to let us know if you have a different view.Continue Reading at:http://investmentsfordummieslikeme.blogspot.com/2010/09/hotel-leela-next-takeover-target-guest.h...

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India VIX and Market Tops

I decided to study the India VIX and its behaviour when the markets hits a top. Thanks to Natasha for pointing me to this study. First of all what is the India VIX? Volatility Index is a measure of market’s expectation of volatility over the near term. Volatility is often described as the “rate and magnitude of changes in prices” and in finance often referred to as risk. Volatility Index is a measure, of the amount by which an underlying Index is...

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Black September: Or is it?

Most of us would have heard of Black September. No I am not talking about the infamous Munich massacre but the theory that the markets would tank in September. I did some number crunching from the years 2001-2009 to check out the facts and fiction.1. In all the years from 2001 onwards, the low of September has been at least 0.5 % less than August close. This is irrespective of it being a bull or bear run. August close for this year is 5402. So, going...

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