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Sunday, 20 October 2013

All set for new highs but.....

Posted on 08:44 by Unknown
The markets continued to inch up higher by 1.5 pc to close at 6189. They are now within touching distance of 2013 highs and very near to all time highs. It looks like the scenario of 6500-7000 is playing out.Let us see what we can do in such a scenario.

1. The markets are close to all time highs but the broader market is down. When I look at my portfolio very few stocks are close to their highs. It has been driven up on the back of IT companies especially TCS.

2. Every rally has gotten narrower. This could either mean we have a sudden collapse one day or as we gather momentum, the broader market picks.

3. If we look at my older posts, the targets of 6500, 6800 and 7300. The broader markets may well pick up. The rupee seems to have to stabilized around 61-62.

4. The level of 61-62 is significant as it makes exports very competitive and at the same time the burden of imports is not too high. The CAD is shrinking and gold, silver imports have fallen.

5. The results have been surprisingly resilient and I do not recall seeing any particular poor result. The best results are out of the way ad the results declared late are usually the poorer ones.

6. The markets may get into a festive mode and continue rising. The FII money is back ad thanks to the shut down drama the quantitative easing ball has been further kicked down the road.

The strategy remains to stay invested and book profits at higher levels. It may not be too prudent to buy stocks now especially if one is not a too nimble footed trader.

Equity is just 1 of the asset classes and may not be perfect one to invest always. There are several tax free bond offering nearly tax free interest of about almost 9 pc. One can think of locking in the money in those too.

Gilt funds are also attractive but the rate of higher interest rates remains. 1 should be prepared to take short term losses if investing in gilts.
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